Afex, in its 2023 Crop Projection Report, has projected higher prices of commodities in the 2023/2024 season for Nigeria
The reason for the high prices across all commodities, according to the report, is due to the general decline in production coupled with increasing demand for commodities for consumption, processing and exports.
The report released by AFEX at its Abuja office highlights food insecurity and food inflation as a major challenge facing Nigeria, with a 5.7 million metric ton shortage across human consumption and agro-processing, and a historically high food inflation rate of 30.64 per cent.
It noted that paddy rice faced the most notable upswing in 2022/2023, partly due to increased flooding, coupled with the ban on rice export by the Indian government.
“This contributed to an increase of 34 per cent and a baseline pricing of N353,000/metric tonne (mt), which is expected to rise to NGN400,000/mt and projected to stabilize at NGN480,000 to N500,000/mt by Q3 2023.
“It will be noted that Nigeria rice millers have been depending on importation of paddy from countries like India to service their mills given low production of the raw materials by farmers due to insecurity among other factors,” the report said.
The report, however, noted that as food prices continue to surge, as witnessed in the 2023 season, food security challenges will continue to persist, reducing Africa’s capacity to achieve zero hunger by 2030.
It revealed that currently, Nigeria’s hunger index score remains alarmingly high, as the country ranks 109th out of 125 countries, which indicates a severe food crisis.
The crop production report, which covered six key commodities including maize, paddy rice, soybean, sorghum, cocoa and sesame, leverages farmer surveys and measurement of transaction-level data to track vital information across crop production, price performance and market dynamics.